Value-based care revenue expected to increase in 2025, survey respondents agree

More than 6 in 10 survey respondents say they expect their healthcare organizations to see higher revenue from value-based care arrangements this year than in 2024, according to a joint report from the National Association of Accountable ACOs and health tech company Innovaccer.

The report surveyed 168 executive and clinical leaders at health systems, accountable care organizations, specialty providers, federally qualified health centers and other delivery organizations.

The findings indicate a growing reliance on VBC programs for some organizations. A significant segment, 30%, of organizations said a quarter of their revenue is tied to VBC contracts. More than 20% indicated at least half of their revenue is derived from fully capitated or downside risk contracts.

Three-fourths of respondents believe further financial support would propel VBC adoption more.

And, while a majority of people said financial risk, provider readiness, interoperability, technology costs, regulatory complexities and a lack of standardized quality metrics are all factors hindering growth in VBC programs industrywide, individuals are bullish on the role of artificial intelligence and data analytics going forward.

Seven in 10 of the leaders said they are optimistic about AI’s potential in “enabling predictive analytics and scaling VBC strategies,” a news release said. Organizations primarily say they are investing in data analytics, AI and care management technologies. Patient engagement solutions are a priority for a third of respondents.

“To capitalize on this momentum, organizations must foster robust operational and technological frameworks that support diverse reimbursement methods, from traditional fee-for-service to full capitation,” the report said.

AI scribes can help primary care practices transition to VBC, according to a recent report from nonprofit innovation lab Phyx Primary Care. For physicians that used an AI scribe for 30 days or more, they reported a 40% reduction in clinical review time for complex patients and a 32% decrease in physician burnout.

The CMS Innovation Center announced this week some pilot model participants may soon be required to accept downside risk in value-based arrangements. The agency is also backing away from the goal to transition all fee-for-service beneficiaries to accountable care arrangements by 2030.