Medicare beneficiaries who remain in their current stand-alone Part D drug plans could face sharply higher premiums in 2027 if they don’t switch to lower-cost plans during open enrollment, according to a KFF analysis.
The average monthly premium for stand-alone prescription drug plans, or PDPs, is projected to rise 50%, from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027, if current enrollees remain in the same plans, according to the analysis from KFF, an independent source for health policy research, polling and news.
Open enrollment runs through December 7.
The increase would widen the gap between stand-alone drug plans and Medicare Advantage plans that include prescription drug coverage. KFF projects that drug coverage through Medicare Advantage plans that offer Part D coverage, or MA-PDs, will average $9 a month in 2027, compared with $51 for PDPs. The average PDP premium would rise by $17, compared with an increase of less than $2 for MA-PDs.
For Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage, the average beneficiary has 28 Medicare Advantage prescription drug plans (MA-PDs) and 9 stand-alone prescription drug plans (PDPs) to choose from, with varying costs associated with these different options. KFF analysts examined premiums and cost-sharing requirements for Part D coverage in 2027 and how these costs have changed over time, based on Medicare plan landscape and benefits data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
The $51 figure assumes current PDP enrollees remain in their existing plans. The actual average premium could be lower as beneficiaries switch to less expensive plans during open enrollment and new beneficiaries select coverage.
CMS projected a much smaller increase in the national average Part D premium, from $35 to $36. KFF noted that CMS, which based its estimate on September 2026 enrollment, did not explain its calculation methodology.
Among PDP enrollees who do not receive low-income subsidies, 76%, or 10.4 million people, would pay higher premiums if they keep their current plans. About 2.4 million would see their monthly premiums increase by more than $50.
That's a sharp increase from 2026, when only 38,000 enrollees faced monthly premium increases exceeding $50, according to KFF. The Trump administration’s decision to discontinue the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after 2026 ended the additional premium subsidies that were provided to PDP sponsors and the cap on the maximum allowable monthly PDP premium increase, which was set at $50 for 2026, according to KFF analysts.
Another 4.1 million beneficiaries without low-income subsidies are enrolled in zero-premium PDPs this year, but no zero-premium PDPs will be available in 2027.
“With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment,” Juliette Cubanski, a vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF, said in a statement. “There are relatively low-premium PDP options, but people facing large premium increases need to take action if they want to avoid paying significantly more.”
According to KFF's analysis, if PDP enrollees who are not receiving Part D Low-Income Subsidies (LIS) keep their current plan in 2027, more than half (55%), or 7.5 million people, will pay premiums of less than $20 per month, but nearly 30%, or 3.9 million people, will pay at least $100 per month.
Average monthly premiums for the eight national PDPs are projected to range from around $6 to $204 in 2027. Among national PDPs, the two lowest-premium plans are Centene’s Wellcare Value Script Rx, an enhanced PDP with an average premium of $6.50 for 2027, up from $5.80 in 2026, and Wellcare Classic, a basic PDP with an average premium of $10.90 for 2027, up from $8.60 in 2026, according to the analysis. The national PDPs with the highest average monthly premiums are United’s AARP Medicare Rx Preferred at $204.50, up from $126.00 in 2026, and Humana Premier Rx Plan at $137.40, up from $119.60 in 2026.
The analysis also finds that most Part D enrollees will face a deductible of several hundred dollars for drug coverage in 2027, including 85% of MA-PD enrollees, up from 80% in 2026, and virtually all PDP enrollees, 99.8%, up from 96% in 2026, based on current enrollment. The average Part D deductible in 2027 will be $643 for PDP enrollees, up from $540 in 2026, and $489 for MA-PD enrollees, rising from $360 in 2026. The standard Part D deductible in 2027 is $700, up from $615 in 2026.
Most Part D enrollees will also face coinsurance rather than fixed copayments for preferred-brand and non-preferred drugs, potentially making their out-of-pocket costs less predictable. Virtually all PDP enrollees will face median coinsurance of 25% for preferred brands and 35% for non-preferred drugs, according to KFF.