Hospitals did not experience a major rebound in deferred care in the first part of 2021, foretelling that such care may not be coming back, a new analysis finds.
The analysis from Kaiser Family Foundation and the Epic Health Research Network, released Tuesday, found hospital spending was 4.1% below expected levels in June. It is the latest evidence of how the lingering impact of the pandemic could affect hospital finances, especially as the highly transmissible delta variant is causing new surges in most states.
“Several factors may be contributing to the lower-than-expected number of hospital admissions in early 2021,” the analysis said. “For example, the economic effects of the pandemic may depress the number of people seeking services.”
Researchers explored data from 250 hospitals across 47 states and 112 million patients through April 9, 2021.
Hospital admission rates were nearly 90% of what were expected if the pandemic did not happen, the analysis found.
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The first quarter saw a surge of COVID-19 in January and February but eased as vaccinations rapidly increased.
“Though vaccinations significantly reduced the rates of hospitalizations for COVID-19 in early April 2021 from peak COVID hospitalizations in January 2021, the pandemic is still driving a significant share of hospital admissions,” the analysis said. “If we remove patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis, we see that all other admissions are 80.7% of expected levels based on pre-pandemic usage in the week of April 3, 2021.”
The analysis also looked at healthcare spending based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which showed spending on hospitals and ambulatory care was down 7.1% from expected levels in June.
“Spending on hospitals is 4.1% below expected health spending in June 2021,” the analysis added. “Since January 2021, annualized overall health services and hospital expenditures are growing at a similar rate as prior to the pandemic in 2017-2020.”
The data offer a new look at how healthcare utilization remains down even as COVID-19 cases have subsided.
At the onset of the pandemic, hospitals were forced to cancel or postpone elective surgical procedures to preserve capacity to fight the virus. Outpatient care and emergency department volumes also plummeted as patients feared contracting COVID-19.
The latest data could indicate most of that delayed care is not coming back, the analysis said.
“Some of the care that was missed earlier in the pandemic may have been for acute conditions that resolved on their own or chronic conditions that were managed with less service intensity than would have otherwise been delivered,” the analysis said.
But other instances of delayed care could lead to worse outcomes “or even premature death.”
The results come as several hospital systems report increased volumes in the second quarter of the year.
Hospital giant HCA Healthcare, for instance, reported a $1.4 billion profit in the latest quarter thanks to a 20% rebound in patient volumes. Tenet Healthcare also reported $120 million profit in the second quarter thanks to a nearly 14% bump in hospital admissions compared to the same quarter in 2020.