If enacted, Donald Trump's healthcare reform plan would lead to as many as 18 million Americans becoming uninsured, while those with coverage would likely have more restrictive policies in place.
Such a scenario would likely cause financial consternation for hospitals. Many hospitals have seen their levels of uncompensated care drop significantly as a result of the Affordable Care Act.
Trump's plan calls for the complete repeal of the ACA, allows full deduction of health insurance premiums by taxpayers, encourages the greater use of health savings accounts, and permits insurers to sell policies across state lines. It also calls for price transparency in healthcare delivery, although it does not include specifics as to how that would be accomplished.
The Center for Health and Economy, a non-partisan think tank, conducted a “microsimulation” of Trump's healthcare proposals. It concluded that the drop of 18 million insured individuals would be linked to “the repeal of the ACA along with the premium tax credits and Medicaid expansion that came with it.” By 2026, the study projects 5 million more Americans would gain insurance coverage, but that the numbers would still be 13 million less than under current law.
Under the ACA, uncompensated care provided by hospitals dropped some $5.7 billion. Levels of uncompensated care would likely rise with fewer insured Americans.
The microsimulation did conclude that Trump's plan would decrease the federal deficit by $583 billion between 2017 and 2026.
"You are going to get a lot thinner coverage both in terms of higher deductibles and fewer benefits," John Holahan of the Urban Institute told CNBC. "The policy is bad for people with high risk, and good for people with low risk."
- read The Center for Health and Economy report
- read the CNBC article