Trilliant Health, a healthcare analytics company, has made its national demand forecast publicly available.
The 10-year, algorithm-based projections of demand for healthcare services leverages the company’s all-payer claims data set to model how demand is likely to change. The national forecast is updated quarterly, with projections by service line and demographic segments.
With the forecast, stakeholders can develop strategic plans to drive return on invested capital; create financial projections based on evolving market demand for health tech, care modalities, pharmaceuticals and medical devices; and inform provider needs analysis with a detailed understanding of demand at the service-line level, Trilliant said.
Trilliant hopes that by making the national forecast available for free, healthcare stakeholders will start making stronger business decisions.
“I think the healthcare system is in danger of collapsing under its own weight,” Trilliant CEO Hal Andrews told Fierce Healthcare. “We’ve just decided that we’re just going to start doing stuff to try to make it better.”
The benefit of Trilliant’s model, executives argue, is insights in near real time compared to the typical models with data lagging years behind. A more static model would not catch, for instance, the increasing rate of utilization in behavioral health until 2027 or 2028.
Like its national provider directory, which became publicly available in August, the forecast will be accessible via an API. Since making its provider directory public, more than 250 companies have signed up, Andrews said.
Premium licensing will be available for subservice line detail and more granular geographies, forecasts by state, core-based statistical area and ZIP code. Such breakdowns are more affordable than what it would normally cost to access a national forecast, Andrews said.
Trilliant’s model accounts for incidence rates of specific conditions stratified by distinct populations. For instance, when comparing Chicago and Houston, it might appear that Houston has the higher demand for healthcare, because it is a rapidly expanding metro area. Conversely, Chicago’s population is declining, so it might appear its healthcare utilization is lower. But stratifying population-level needs by age reveals the demand for healthcare is higher in Chicago than in Houston because its population, though declining, is slightly older and less healthy.
“We need to be making better decisions as soon as the data suggest that,” Andrews said. Policymakers and payers will likely be the most interested in the national forecast, he believes.
While interest in the free provider directory has been strong, Andrews acknowledged the company has also seen a heightened interest in its premium offerings. In its recent quarterly report on health IT, Pitchbook researchers wrote Trilliant making its provider directory free created a “buzzy marketing channel for its premium claims-enhanced directory and analytics.”