Why the Medicare fund won't last as long as projected

Medicare might last beyond 2029, twelve years longer than a 2009 pojection, according to a report released yesterday by the trustees who oversee Medicare and Social Security.

But it might be too soon to celebrate. Even Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius, who is one of the trustees, said the projections assume that cuts in Medicare payments to doctors will go forward, Associated Press reports.

In a dissenting opinion that also erodes the trustees' projection, Medicare Actuary Richard Foster warned in the report that the program's projected savings might not be realistic, Associated Press reports.

The report assumes that Medicare will cut payment rates for doctors' services by 23 percent on Dec. 1 and by another 6.5 percent on Jan. 1, as required under the existing law, according to a CMS fact sheet.

And most healthcare providers aren't likely to improve their productivity as much as the forecast assumes, USA Today reports.

Even the report is closer to pessimistic than cautiously optimistic. It warns that "the outcomes are far from certain," the Fiscal Times reports. Many experts doubt the feasibility of such sustained improvement and anticipate that over time the Medicare price constraints would b come unworkable and that Congress would likely override them."

To learn more:
- see the statement by CMS Administrator Don Berwick
- check out the CMS fact sheet on the Medicare Trustees report
- read The Fiscal Times article
- here's The Wall Street Journal article
- see the Associated Press story
- read the article from USA Today

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