Malignant Melanoma Pharmacor®Patient Flow Model™Now Available From Decision Resources
BURLINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the number of people living with drug-treatable unresectable malignant melanoma in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan will increase by 46 percent between 2010 and 2025 as forecasted survival for malignant melanoma patients improves. Analysis of Pharmacor Patient Flow Model Malignant Melanoma, also finds that the adjuvant setting—which includes cases of non-systemic recurrence—represents the largest drug-treatable population and will expand from 28,000 to 35,000 between 2010 and 2025.
The first-line unresectable drug-treatable population, which models cases of systemic recurrence and is a measure of the number of patients eligible for drug treatment each year, will be limited to single digit growth as risk of malignant melanoma stabilizes, and systemic recurrence risk is reduced over time. However, an increase in the percentage of eligible patients receiving first-line drug treatment will lead to growth of 18 percent and 37 percent in the second and third line drug-treatable populations over the study period, respectively.
“Although malignant melanoma is not as strongly associated with increasing age as other types of cancer, the aging population will still lead to a modest increase in incident cases, most of these being diagnosed at an early stage of disease,” said Decision Resources Principal Epidemiologist Michael Hughes, Ph.D. “While there’s been a historical upward trend in incidence, we don’t think this will continue into the future. This means that, following a lag period of a few years, the number of recurrent cases will also stabilize. Because a relatively large proportion of the unresectable drug-treatable population for malignant melanoma is composed of recurrent cases, this will inevitably limit the commercial opportunity in this setting.”
Pharmacor Patient Flow Model Malignant Melanoma also segments the unresectable drug treatable populations by BRAF gene mutational status: the drug-treatable first-line population for BRAF mutation-positive disease will increase from 6,500 in 2010 to 6,800 in 2025 and the BRAF mutation-negative population will increase from 7,400 to 7,600 over the same period.
The findings are derived from Decision Resources’ Pharmacor Patient Flow Models which utilize Decision Resources proprietary suite of epidemiological models. With Pharmacor Patient Flow Models, users can build their own oncology patient flow model and/or validate the assumptions behind their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track changing disease and population dynamics in the G7 over a 15-year annualized forecast, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within lines of therapy.
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Lisa Osgood, 781-993-2606
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Christopher Comfort, 781-993-2597
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KEYWORDS: United States North America Massachusetts
INDUSTRY KEYWORDS: Health Hospitals Oncology Nursing General Health
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