Common elective surgeries are starting to recover volume lost during COVID-19 lockdown measures, according to a new study by Epic Health Research Network.
No common elective surgery is back at pre-pandemic volumes, though some are nearing it, the study found.
The study’s researchers found that surgeries for which there is little alternative treatment, like breast surgery or abdominal hysterectomies, rebounded enough once states reopened to mostly make up for the deficit lockdown created, said Sam Butler, M.D., the lead author of the study and an Epic physician on the clinical informatics team, in an interview with Fierce Healthcare.
However, for knee prosthesis surgeries, for example, volumes did not recover as well (20% below predictions), suggesting those patients sought alternative treatment like pain medications or physical therapy in the interim.
“We are good, but we’re still not even at neutral yet,” Butler said.
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The study defined elective surgeries as the procedures that can be scheduled based on surgeon and are rarely performed as an emergency, which included categories like breast surgery, abdominal hysterectomy, prostate surgery, vaginal hysterectomy, knee prosthesis and thyroid or parathyroid surgery.
The study tracked surgery volumes from the start of 2020 through July 2021.
Lockdown was defined as when the American College of Surgeons and the U.S. surgeon general recommended halting elective procedures, Epic said. The study used predictive modeling to estimate volume baselines for each month studied and then compared the difference to actual figures. The model did not account for COVID-19, Epic told Fierce Healthcare.
The category that is most closely approaching pre-lockdown volumes is breast surgery, under just 2% of Epic’s predicted volumes. Abdominal hysterectomy surgery—which took the second-lowest hit during the pandemic lockdown, dropping more than 40% below predicted volumes—recovered nearly as well as breast surgery, now under just 6% of predicted volumes.
The study offers a chance for providers to dig deeper into their populations and examine whether some patients find alternative treatments sufficient or better than the surgery they offer, Butler noted.