The Office of the Actuary for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has calculated that healthcare spending will increase an average of 5.7 percent between 2011 and 2021, according to research published in Health Affairs.
Altogether, the growth in healthcare services will outstrip general growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) by nearly 1 percentage point per year.
Although recent spending has been comparatively moderate--3.9 percent--it is expected to rise much more quickly after the expected full implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in 2014 and beyond, according to the article.
That will lead to an 18 percent increase in Medicaid spending and a 7.4 percent increase in overall spending, reported MedPage Today.
"The recent recession and the modest economic recovery have played a role in our projection of near historic lows in health spending growth through 2013," lead author Sean Keehan said in a media statement, noted a Health Affairs blog post. "However, other factors such as Medicare payment cuts under current law and the patent expirations of several top-selling brand-name drugs have led to projected health spending growth staying at about 4 percent during this period."