Reform battle more about precedent than progress

Remember these times, folks. Without a doubt, the country is at a historic point when it comes to health reform. One way or another, it seems almost guaranteed that Congress is going to pass a reform bill soon, be it good, bad or ugly. What remains to be seen is whether it will give more aggressive reformers the leverage they need to keep the change process moving in the future.

At this point, all is chaos. It's clear that there are very deep divisions between the houses of Congress over what reform should look like, driven largely by philosophical differences on just what role the government should play in straightening out the existing mess.

Those divisions aren't going to go away anytime soon, and certainly not within the next few months. When you're pitting people who believe that government should stay out of healthcare against those who ultimately favor single-payer (as I'm sure some Dems quietly do in their hearts), it's amazing that we've made any progress.  Small wonder that Tom Daschle recently told a professional conference that he sees only a 60 percent chance of reform passing at all.

So what can we expect? In truth, I'd argue that what's most likely is a bunch of milquetoast compromises that establish a beachead on issues dear to the majority party.  Take the reaction of Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) when quizzed by Keith Olbermann over the status of the public option this week. Whitehouse told Keith that even if states opt out of the public option, things would still be moving in the right direction.

If you're in favor of major reforms, you're not going to be satisfied with what comes out of Congress. And if you wanted to keep things as they were, you're not going to be thrilled either. But reformers, at least, are likely to get at least some of what they want, and precedent can be worth a lot on its own.

Say what you like about reform measures, but they're definitely not business as usual. The question will be how those who want to shake things up further make of their moment. -- Anne

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