Patient scores predict survival rates

Johns Hopkins is turning the tables on patients by scoring them, determining the likelihood of their survival after a procedure. Because donor hearts are extremely limited, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine created a "simple-to-use tool that is highly predictive of survival after a heart transplant," said Professor of Surgery John V. Conte in a JHU Gazette article.

Researchers of the Annals of Thoracic Surgery study looked at more than 21,000 patients and 12 recipient-specificvariables, including age, race, gender, the cause of heart failure, and dialysis. Each of those factors has assigned points that make up a 50-point scoring system, according to the article. The higher the score, the more likely death would occur one year after transplant, the researchers concluded.

Some variables, however, receive more points than others. For example, dialysis while waiting on the donor list gets five points, and being a woman receives three points.

"As clinicians, we make an educated assessment of what the risk is going to be," Conte said. "This tool provides a quantitative way to assess the risk."

The scoring system that predicts survival and--to some degree--mortality could help hospitals determine the most at-risk patients and the patients most likely to do well. Currently, there are no standardized methods for predicting patients' outcomes, according to the article.

For more information:
- read the JHU Gazette article
- here's the study abstract

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